I think you are correct to rule out the bellows because of the change in position of the back and the resulting leak pattern. To me it looks like your option B - a leak between the holder and camera. Are you sure you are getting a tight fit when the holder is inserted? In the photo it looks like your groove is at the edge of the opening, is there wood missing on the camera back on the left side of the groove? Or, have you checked the fit on the camera back and the body? Any gaps there?
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