The Film Apocalypse and Proper Freezing and Storage of Film

[sanchi heuser]

Andi,

Yes, in a way it is an unchangeable law; the law of supply and demand.
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...
There is no reasonable scenario in which the trend could be reversed, or even mediated, so the only logical question remaining is not if film will disappear as a mainstream product, but when? I think film could be available for a long time, and I expect the last manufacturers standing to be Chinese.
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...

Hey Jay,

maybe it's changebable by us as we are working for it?

I could very well imaging a scenario when more young people appear which wants to
have excellent image quality, but are unwilling and of course unable to
buy expensive digital high end stuff and don't want the burden of a bank's credit.

I see these youngsters more and more coming to the german speaking LF forum
asking for help.
Some weeks ago a fellow photographer and I decided to make periodically local meetings and costfree workshops especially for LF beginners and students in design or
art photography. first one will be on february the 12th.
BTW, everybody crossing the region
of Düsseldorf at that time can join and have a cup of coffee or a local
fresh brewed beer please feel invited.

Will be our contribution for the encouragement of film.

Jay, I understand your realistic approach very well, and obviously there are
certain principles, but for me it's also a physical fact that the future is unwritten,
it's not happened yet physically...

Andi

[Michael Kadillak]

John,

I'm afraid your analysis doesn't make much sense. If a decrease in demand for cameras makes them unprofitable to make, where will the demand for used cameras come from? If one wanted a new camera, one could always have one custom made, and the same guys building cameras now, like Wehman, would step in and build them if the market justified it. The idea that decreasing demand for cameras is going to increase the value of used ones is wishful thinking. I know I'll never pay as much for an 8x10 camera, under any circumstances, as I can sell mine for now.

There are camera makers that are continuing to make and sell new cameras. Your assumption that they are unprofitable to make is just not the case. The demand for cameras (new and used) will come from emerging markets such as China, India, South Korea and elsewhere around the world. Canham continues to be very busy as do other makers that have a sounds business model and exemplary customer service and since I have four of them I know that they are not exactly giving them away.

Trying to time a market assuming that you know what the future value will be is simply wishful thinking. Even five years ago the general consensus was that film would have already been dead and buried. I could care less what the forward market for cameras is because it is immaterial to my desire to participate in using my wide range of equipment for my enjoyment.

If you sell all of your camera equipment won't you miss 510 pyro? Have you proper succession planning in place?

[Jay DeFehr]

Andi,

I'm not suggesting there aren't people interested in film photography, or even that there are new photographers choosing film, but that the larger picture shows unequivocally the trend is definitively one sided with huge numbers of people giving up film for digital. If new film users even remotely approached the number of former film users, we wouldn't see films being discontinued at an accelerating rate. The anecdotes just don't match the statistics. This is a sea change, and there's nothing that can be done to reverse it. Consumers use cheap digital cameras that perform more than well enough for their needs, which are increasingly web-based and not print-based. Professional photographers have all but made the transition to digital. More and more feature films are shot digitally, and more and more theaters are converting to digital projection. Emerging markets like China and India are embracing the digital age. A 10mp digital camera is a lot less expensive to use, and a lot more practical for these markets than a film camera, since there are few film processing centers, and the use of film would require the addition of scanning for the most popular applications. So, in many important ways the future is happening now. To predict the tide will turn in favor of film is a bold prediction, indeed.

Michael,

It wasn't my assumption that making cameras would become unprofitable, it was John's. Neither of us suggested it is unprofitable now. I mentioned the role of China in film production, but if you believe the cameras the emerging markets will demand will be film cameras, you're out of touch with the reality of those markets. Check the sales figures if you doubt me. Timing the market is not difficult when the trend is as well established as this one. If you think I'm wrong, you could buy my gear and resell it at a profit when prices go up.

I'm not thinking of selling all my cameras, just one of my 8x10s, and some 8x10 lenses, and other accessories. That leaves 5x7, several 4x5 outfits, 3x4, several MF outfits and several 35mm outfits. I'll hold on to each format until film becomes prohibitively expensive or unavailable. I'm not sure what you mean by "succession planning". 510-Pyro is no longer my primary developer, but I do use it when appropriate; here in Alaska, for instance.

[sanchi heuser]

Hi Jay,

OK, you're right with the big mass trend.
But I strongly believe there will be a sufficient number of film users left
on a more or less constant level, even when the masses turn away.
That will make film production still interessting.

Film will keep it's inherent magic and attraction to people,
and then we'll be there to show them the craft and encourage to keep on.
That's what we try with our meetings and costfree workshops here in Düsseldorf.
Will be more a mutual learning and sharing of experiences, cause
my fellow and I are not
so advanced to act like a teacher or something.

We all have to do something to keep the thing running,
don't we?

Most of success with your projects in 2011.

Andi

[Liam:]

Some would say the real value is the market value, and your valuation is subjective and meaningless, except as related to your personal negotiations. Nonetheless, your larger point is correct; the mass migration from film to digital is knocking the bottom out of the used film gear market, at an accelerating rate, as I described in another thread. By selling off my 8x10 gear now, while film is still available for it, I stand to get a much better price for it than I could get later, when film is harder to find, and more expensive. If I want to buy back in to 8x10 at some future date, I'll pay much less to replace the gear I sell now. Realistically, I'm more likely to invest that money into a system for making digital negatives than in buying back into a marginal format.

I would normally agree but have you seen the price of polaroid film and polaroid cameras such as the sx-70....

[Michael Kadillak]

Hi Jay,

Film will keep it's inherent magic and attraction to people,
and then we'll be there to show them the craft and encourage to keep on.
That's what we try with our meetings and costfree workshops here in Düsseldorf.
Will be more a mutual learning and sharing of experiences, cause
my fellow and I are not
so advanced to act like a teacher or something.

Andi

I will be doing the same thing here in the US. There are any number of places where people want to hear about the opportunities available again with film.

In any event this is getting to be old news. I could care less about the "masses" and what they do. I am into solutions, not throwing the cards down along with people like Jay with such complacency. I would rather spend my time kicking a ULF film deal into the done column which is the next priority. Those that no longer feel the need to use film will see the rest of us 5 and 10 years from now with that much more experience and joy from our proactive actions. I am reminded of the age old adage that may even have a religions origination -

"It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness"

[John Kasaian]

A real estate developer once told me "If you think you'd like to live there, chances are good other people will want to live there too." That philosophy applies to hobbies as well and I think traditional photography is a good example.
If there is a market, there will be suppliers.
The situation is beginning to remind me of Husserl and the phenomonolgy movement in that the very act of taking and printing images has value and the effort put forth has a definate bearing on the phenomenon. Photography with sheet film,fishing with a fly rod, navigating with an E6B slide rule, riding a horse, fencing with swords, growing your own tomatos, or playing a musical instrument have all been surpassed in terms of efficiency but this efficiency also isolates, to some (great) degree, the man from the act

[Jay DeFehr]

Andi,

Your workshops sound great. I do the same kind of thing in Idaho, teaching kids how to build pinhole cameras and contact print their paper or film negatives. It's a lot of fun, and I meet great people. I've had more than a few parents join the group, and they have as much fun as the kids do. I would love to attend your meetings if I was in your city.

We all have to do something to keep the thing running,
don't we?

I think we have differing ideas regarding what the thing is. For me, photography is about making images, by whatever process. I use film for lots of reasons, but mostly because it's fun, and I enjoy sharing that fun, especially with kids. I think every one of my kids' friends has had some kind of photography lesson at my house. Some use film, others digital, but that's not the point. The point is they develop an appreciation for the expressive potential of a photo, and feel free to see in a new way.

Liam,

I think the price spike for SX-70 cameras correlates to the introduction of the instant film by Harmann. I actually have an SX-70; I should probably sell that too!

Michael,

Your "solution" to your problem, which consists of persuading people to buy into group special orders, is not exactly innovative as much as it's one possible response to changes in the marketplace. Your evangelical zeal and characterization of anyone who doesn't share it as complacent illustrates your egoism. My decision to get out of the 8x10 format is a personal one, and no one asked you to follow my example. Why do you see every circumstance in absolute terms, as a zero sum game?

Those that no longer feel the need to use film will see the rest of us 5 and 10 years from now with that much more experience and joy from our proactive actions.

Why do you set this up as an antagonism? Why would I care about your experience or enjoyment of using film? And why do you insist on suggesting I'm no longer using film when I've repeatedly stated I will continue to use film in other formats, for as long as it's available and affordable? Lots of people get out of various formats for all kinds of reasons. Are you so offended because I'm (mostly) getting out of 8x10 due to the price and availability of film, or because I plan to use the proceeds to buy a DSLR? Or, is it simply a matter of someone making a different choice than you've made that irritates you?

If, for reasons of your own, you want to pay a premium for special order film, and pay to store it on a long term basis, that's your prerogative. I don't see anything particularly noble or admirable in it, and I don't think it will have any effect on the market; it's just a personal choice you've made. For me, there's nothing exclusive to the 8x10 format that warrants that kind of sacrifice. You might feel your being "proactive", but you're just postponing the inevitable and ignoring the opportunities. A truly adaptive strategy would be to learn to make digital negatives that print as well as film negatives, like Sandy and others are doing. You might say it's useless, or that digital negatives will never equal a film negative, but that's just defeatism and complacency, and I have more respect for the people actually making the commitment to address the issues and solve the problems than those who are determined to go down with the ship, which doesn't really take much courage at all.


Change only favours minds that are diligently looking and preparing for discovery.

Louie Pasteur

[John Kasaian]

Jay,
We do what we must do. I wish you good fortune in your quest to improve digital photography. I am captivated by traditional 8x10 photography. I think the responses you're seeing are born of concern, not animosity. The enjoyment you derived from 8x10 has changed and we need to respect that(even though we can't wrap our minds around it---like James Taylor dumping Carly Simon, something deep inside of me wants to shout "Brother James, noooooo!") Just as you see us luddites stressed out about which emulsions are vanishing from the face of the planet---so much so that it saps our resources to fill and maintain multiple freezers full of 10 sheet boxes of TMY, agonizing over impending threats of thawing power outages(you know it's going to happen---better get an emergency generator) to the point where we've become obsessive, cutting ourselves off from our glass coating pioneering ancestors and the Edward Westons who cavalier shot whatever was affordable and available in order to get it done.
Your points are well taken. We are concerned for each other's contributions to the art because we value those contributions and friendships which have formed over time.
But we all got to do what we've got to do.
It helps not getting too uptight over things.

[Jay DeFehr]

Thanks John.

My enjoyment of 8x10 hasn't changed. 8x10 was never my primary format; just one of many. And I'm not giving up 8x10 completely; just selling off the most valuable bits of kit. I still have at least a year's supply of film, or more, at the rate I shoot 8x10. I'm just being pragmatic. I need a DSLR for a project I'm planning, and I don't need my Deardorff. I'm not on any quest to improve digital photography, I'm just utilizing its unique properties. Judging by my very limited digital experience, I think digital photography will be as much fun as film photography, and that's a happy surprise.

One of the things I like about Husserl was his willingness to revise his philosophy.