Kodak 45% chance going down?

[Drew Wiley]

Chuck - this is similar to the malarkey posted on another thread. Kodak has a microfilm
division, a gelatin division, a demand for aerial film, and a GIANT market for movie film
and X-ray film. This means that film base, coating machines, and slitters are going to
be around for quite awhile. While specific products will inevitable change from time to
time, the notion that digital is going to bump all these categories off the log is utterly
preposterous. There are still big bucks in making film. Folks need to look at the big
picture, not just what the local camera stores are stocking.

[Charles Carstensen]

Hi, Drew, thanks. Kodak operates three divisions. Consumer digital, Film, Photofinishing and Entertainment, and Graphic Communications. You are certainly correct about the Film, Photofinishing and Entertainment Group being big bucks. EK is a 8.5 Billion per year revenue company down from 13.5 B in 2004. Film use is being replaced in the movie industry, the medical industry, and even aerial photography. I see the film group as a declining part of the big picture. Only 5 analysts are now following Kodak. Four of them say sell. Maybe 2010 will be better for EK.

[Andrew O'Neill]

Folks need to look at the big
picture, not just what the local camera stores are stocking.

...or what the camera store people are saying. They always say "film is dead" because they are told to say that. I always have a heated argument with one store manager near my house. They stock a few roles of HP5 35mm and Ilford MG RC paper. Even though fim is dead according to him, people are still coming in and buying it.

[Drew Wiley]

Yeah, Chuck. I deal with several of these oversize corporations. The problem is that
they can't concentrate on all their divisions at the same time, so even though the
potential business exists, someone more specialized might steal it from them. I
believe that film is still the overwhelming product for movies even in this country,
with digital taking over special effects and animation. But in Asia, where the movie
industry is even larger than Hollywood, film unquestionably dominates. And with
Kodak moving some of the production lines to China, forming the equivalent of joint
ventures, they might be hedging their bet by joining the enemy. On different posts I
have explained why film is still essential to aerial survelliance, although this need
can be met by periodic large production runs of specialized film. And although medical imaging in this country is also going digital (something Kodak is capitalizing on), the international use of X-ray film is still enormous, along with dental X-rays, etc. The whole question is how well Kodak keeps up with their competition overseas in this cumulative market. Large format film is a very small part of the whole, but will probably remain profitable for some time, given the fact that this too has warranted new production options overseas as well as ongoing improvements in product R&D. Job losses,etc, at Kodak don't tell you where the money is or is not being made. It wasn't that long ago that oil companies timed their largest layoffs during record profits - with massize bonuses to the bigshots! But Kodak like many companies is hurting for the moment. US layoffs are not a total clue, however, since
a serious degree of film production has begun in China. That does not automatically
imply a reduction in quality, since companies sometimes go there not so much for
the labor savings as for cheap land with few environmental restrictions or building
permit complications. Incidentally, all the old Technicolor cameras and dye stocks
have been bought by the Chinese too, with the intention of using this once the right
movies come along, with the requisite budgets. The biggest logistical problem right
now is that older DuPont and Agfa film base stocks are slowly running out, which
were bought at closeout pricing, and a change in the stock will inevitably affect the
characteristics of the film. Obsolescense of a specific polyester stock was allegedly
why TechPan had to be discontinued.

[Marko]

And with Kodak moving some of the production lines to China, forming the equivalent of joint ventures, they might be hedging their bet by joining the enemy.

Drew, you have to share the source of all these great news you seem to have! Try as I may, all the reference I manage to find about Kodak in China is several years old. Why do you keep us all in suspense and don't tell us which ventures and what products are those?

Could it be the new microfilm line to keep up with all those "major libraries" or "major corporations" that "are switching back to film"? And since they all seem to be very hush-hush, Kodak tries to keep it all under wraps as to not upset such big clients?

[Oren Grad]

And with Kodak moving some of the production lines to China, forming the equivalent of joint ventures, they might be hedging their bet by joining the enemy.

Drew, that's over.

[Drew Wiley]

Thanks Oren, but I wasn't referring to the official joint venture with Lucky, but to the
tendency of overseas coating facilties to become subcontractors. More and more, it is
getting hard to determine exactly where a product is made, and in what stages. In the
past, Kodak even used a coating facility in Eastern Europe for certain films. The machines are still there, but not the people who knew how to formulate those particular emulsions.

[Gordon Moat]

http://www.largeformatphotography.in...1&postcount=21

Already posted, but perhaps overlooked. Division declining is not the same as losing revenues. As long as the film division generates revenues, as indicated in those graphs, then Kodak (EK) will continue with that. Oh, and in case anyone needs a source for those graphs, I have the full report from Fitch Ratings, where I have an account to access that information.