Forum Growth.....or not?

[Brian Ellis]

"I've seen Van Camper's report cited many times as authority for the proposition that film sales and specifically LF film sales are increasing. His report is his interpretation of things he heard sales reps say at a photo show. As such I don't consider it particularly authoritative, especially when information from Kodak indicates that film sales continue to decline. See, for example, the following from early 2009 (the show Van Camper attended was in 2008):
"The Eastman Kodak Company said Thursday it was cutting 3,500 to 4,500 jobs, or 14 percent to 18 percent of its work force, as it posted a fourth-quarter loss of $137 million on plunging sales of both digital and film-based photography products. . . . Revenue from digital products dropped 23 percent to $1.78 billion, and traditional film-based revenue fell 27 percent to $652 million . . . http://edmund-ng.blogspot.com/2009/0...dak-trims.html
--------------------------- Brian Ellis

I realize that "film based revenue" encompasses revenues from a broad area and isn't limited to sales of consumer film and certainly not to LF film. It presumably includes movie film, xray film, maybe papers and chemicals, who knows exactly what all is in there. So it's conceivable that consumer film sales and/or LF film sales alone are increasing despite the overall large decrease in "film based revenue." But that seems relatively unlikely with a decline as large as 27% in one year. So as between Van Camper's interpretation of what he heard some salesmen say at a photo show and Kodak's own information about its film-based revenues, I'll go with Kodak.


First, I wish it were true, but I never attended the Photokina show...the legwork was done by Henning Serger. Second, interpreting fourth quarter losses of $137 million on plunging sales of both "digital" and film-based photography does not answer the question considering they sell scientific equipment, cameras, movie and x-ray film, etc. This is more a reflection of the economy. The 27 percent drop in film based revenue may appear at first relevant, but everyone has seen first hand that it was amateur film (35mm) that took all the bumps. The amateur market saw all the action.....corner labs disappearing, department stores dumping film cameras for digital and dumping film, and companies coming and going. On the other hand I haven't seen any of that with the large format market. We still have over a dozen large format camera mfrs, and we havn't seen shrinkage in their product lines. In fact it is the other way around....the product line width and depth has increased. New large format cameras have been introduced to specifically aim at certain needs in the market (Ebony, Chamonix)...thus the introduction of odd formats (5x8, 6.5x8.5, 4x10, 7x17, etc). The term ultra large format also appeared which 5 years ago was unheard of. When I start seeing large format mfrs shrinking their product line down to 2 or 3 products, or see the total number of large format camera mfrs shrinking from 12 or more to 2 or 3, then I will worry. When I see Fuji introducing the Bessa III 6x7 folding film camera, that means a lot to me, because they know the inside story, and wouldn't be investing in it if film based products were dead. Third, often primary data (personal research) is far more reliable then secondary sources which rarely answer the specific questions we have. You obviously are resisting considering data obtained from mfr reps who know more about their company then we do. You also ignored the comments made earlier that Freestyle, BH, and Badger have seen film sales increases of professional film. This you cannot ignore. When someone mentions "
Fourth, I am more concerned about the short term (less then 10 years)....and perhaps film will disappear, but like olive oil, matches, bicycles, artists watercolor and oils....these all have 100+ year product life cycles. The following likely will clear some points up.....
...."You can come back in 10 yrs, there will be a film business here, said Joel T. Proeglar, general manager of film capture and vice president in Kodaks film, photofinishing and entertainment group. It'll be smaller. (Jan 4, 2009). This is exactly in line what most people are thinking...smaller, but alive and stabilizing.

http://www.rit.edu/news/utilities/pd...kodak_film.pdf

Three more websites support Henning Sergers findings..." both Kodak and Fuji are reporting increased film sales amongst professional photographers." http://visionlandscapes.spaces.live....626E!336.entry

http://holgarific.net/?p=71

http://www.thiaps.com/editors/

Here is some more good news....."As most film users are afraid of the day films would be gone: this fear is music from yesterday. Who in future still suffers from this fear needs probably another kind of help. All suppliers report a significant growth in film and paper market.
I had the chance to have a long and interesting conversation with a Fuji representative. Since 2005 Fuji has growing figures in sales of their Pro-line films, in colour and b+w; since 2007 the curve-up is getting steeper and steeper, he said. „Pro" for Fuji means both, the ambitious amateur and the earning professional. Important for this increase are especially young photographers, artists, and archival and documenting institutions. Fuji expects an further increase from the fact that more and more law-courts are not anymore taking digital pictures as evidence. " Also notice the rumour going around Photokina of a 40% increase in 4x5 film sales by Kodak (doubtful, but shows everyone is excited). ( http://www.thiaps.com/editors/ ) . This September we have Photokina 2010, and the latest up to date news of the entire industry.

Using only one data source from and industry (Kodaks financial statements) is not very reliable or specific to our question (large format sales). But when we start hearing from multiple sources across the industry, from mfrs of cameras and films....then it is believable. When you also consider large format mfrs are continuing business like nothing has changed (while amateur film cameras and films took a huge hut), are still adding new or improving their products, then I'll go with what the industry says, not just Kodaks financial figures.


Brian, I agree, I have cited several times the Photokina 2008 findings, but then again you have also repeatedly cited the same example using Kodaks financial figures (very general). You have not even tried analyzing this further....a one line answer is sometimes not enough to explain what might be happening with large format film sales.

There's no point in arguing further, if you want to believe that LF film sales are doing great have at it. Who knows, maybe they really are. But I do ask one thing - please don't repeat that Fuji representative's silly statement that more and more law courts will only accept film based photographs as evidence. Unless he's speaking of courts in Japan about which I know nothing, that's simply not true. Digital images present certain unique problems and police departments have had to develop new internal rules dealing with things like chain of custody and access but when properly authenticated digital images are admitted as evidence in courts across the United States every day.

[Kirk Gittings]

OK so our resident software guru, Tom Westbrook, chimed in about the "Active Members" count. It is a default setting that counts members who have logged in anytime in the last 30 days. So to me that seems like a very solid sign of growth. No?

[lilmsmaggie]

OK so our resident software guru, Tom Westbrook, chimed in about the "Active Members" count. It is a default setting that counts members who have logged in anytime in the last 30 days. So to me that seems like a very solid sign of growth. No?

As long as you can attribute the login to a single instance for that member, rather than multiple logons for the same member in that 30 day period. In other words, eliminate duplicates.

Make sense?

[Kirk Gittings]

June 2008:
Threads: 32,221, Posts: 340,521, Members: 13,693, Active Members: 2,234

January 2010
Threads: 51,598, Posts: 524,061, Members: 16,885, Active Members: 2,814

Today
Threads: 61,069, Posts: 623,964, Members: 18,914, Active Members: 3,012

Every once in a while I like to compare the numbers. Steady growth. We have now topped the 3,000 Active member mark-that is 3K+ people who have posted at least once in the last year. Most forums only post their membership numbers because that looks allot more impressive than an "active" count would, but to me the "active" count is more indicative of real growth. For example Luminous Landscape's numbers today:

Threads: 41,159, Posts: 38,4571, Members: 37,261

[Cornelius]

I'm a new (relatively) member, and in the past few months I have been on this site almost daily, if not more. I was primarily a medium format shooter, but after a bit of practice and access to great info thanks to this site, I am now shooting the majority of my important work on large format instead. Currently that means 4x5, but I just recently picked up an 8x10 Deardorff.

I don't post often mostly because I feel I as yet have much to offer considering my inexperience, but on this topic I felt I should make myself count since I am a new member.

I do want to say that when I have posted other members have made me feel perfectly welcome. This is a great site, without it I would have been much more hesitant to make the plunge, or it would have at least taken me much longer.

Thanks to all who are willing contributors to information on this LF site!

[Merg Ross]

June 2008:
Threads: 32,221, Posts: 340,521, Members: 13,693, Active Members: 2,234

January 2010
Threads: 51,598, Posts: 524,061, Members: 16,885, Active Members: 2,814

Today
Threads: 61,069, Posts: 623,964, Members: 18,914, Active Members: 3,012

Every once in a while I like to compare the numbers. Steady growth. We have now topped the 3,000 Active member mark-that is 3K+ people who have posted at least once in the last year. Most forums only post their membership numbers because that looks allot more impressive than an "active" count would, but to me the "active" count is more indicative of real growth. For example Luminous Landscape's numbers today:

Threads: 41,159, Posts: 38,4571, Members: 37,261

Congratulations on the growth!

Has the quality of posts kept pace with the increased number of posters? Do you have a count of persons on ignore lists?

Joking, of course, however I prefer quality to quantity.

[Bruce Watson]

Do you have a count of persons on ignore lists?

Now *that* would be interesting.

[Preston]

I don't post often mostly because I feel I as yet have much to offer considering my inexperience, but on this topic I felt I should make myself count since I am a new member.

Cornelius,

Welcome to the 'dark slide'!

One of the best ways to learn is to explain an idea, concept, or procedure to another person. If you see a post to which you would like to reply, but don't know the answer, do a bit of research and then post your reply. Not only will you learn, but you will be stimulating the discussion and helping others.

While I'm at it, I suggest that you post some of your images in the appropriate thread in Image Sharing & Discussion forum. If you do post and ask for a critique, you will receive excellent feedback.

Now, back on topic...It's good to see the growth, and it's most pleasing to see posts from those like Cornelius who are making the plunge to LF!

--P

[Kirk Gittings]

To update this thread:

June 2008:
Threads: 32,221, Posts: 340,521, Members: 13,693, Active Members: 2,234

January 2010
Threads: 51,598, Posts: 524,061, Members: 16,885, Active Members: 2,814

December 2010
Threads: 61,069, Posts: 623,964, Members: 18,914, Active Members: 3,012

Today
Threads: 87,925, Posts: 920,063, Members: 23,568, Active Members: 2,788

[polyglot]

so... fewer and more-argumentative active members?