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Thread: But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

  1. #1

    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    I recently sat in a professional seminar recently with a representative from big Yellow. He told us that within 5 years Kodak will be selling large format print ers, inks, papers, and everything else digital that is complementary to the "new " business plan.

    He went on to say that film will remain available for another 5 years plus or mi nus and after that no guarantees.

    Better stock up and buy a freezer, I fear film is destined to become as rare as glas plates and only be available in a very few emulsions. Isn't life grand.

    Bill NYC

  2. #2

    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    Bill,

    He forgot to tell you that his statement ("5 years plus or minus, and after that no guarantees.") was realy a reference to how long Kodak will be in business. That is if their marketing department doesn't kill them sooner.

    Film will be around for quite a while, as the vast majority of the world is not digital ready.

  3. #3

    Join Date
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    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    There will probably always be a couple of film manufacturers producing a couple varieties of color and B&W emulsions. 35mm mdium format and 4x5 and maybe 8x10. But exotic sizes may become a victim as cost cutting continues. The other factor will be as demand decreases, what will be the effect on the cost of film. Eventually the cost will force most hobbyists and amateurs over to digital.

    Availability of chemistry will also slowly decline. Luckily for serious shooters we can mix almost everything we need. For others it will spell the end of the wet darkroom.

    For me, as long as I can get a 100 and 400 asa color or B&W film and one or two varieties of paper for 4x5 and 8x10 I will continue with the traditional processes. Who knows, less time worring about what paper, film and chemistry to use may make me a much more productive and creative photographer.

  4. #4

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    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    Thanks Bill, until I saw your message I didn't know film was in any danger of going away but now that you've told me it will be gone in five years I'm stopping in at my bank on Monday, taking out a second mortgage on my house, buying the biggest freezer I can find, and loading it up with all the film I can lay my hands on. Thanks for letting me know that digital is going to replace film in the next five years, I had never heard that before.
    Brian Ellis
    Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way when you do criticize them you'll be
    a mile away and you'll have their shoes.

  5. #5

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    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    Brian, Very Good. Pat

  6. #6

    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    The only constancy about predictions of consequences of changing technology is that they are rarely anything but wrong. We film users should all be heartened by "big Yellow's" prediction, as they have, in recent decades, achieved a much higher than average record of wrongly anticipating changing business conditions. I would bet, better than even, that Kodak has a much greater chance of failing in the digital arena than it would if it stayed in film despite shrinking market share. The track record of large corporations' ability to shift from one technological base to another is famously poor. I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that film users will see some notable changes and shifts in the film and film-based photographic marketplace. However, it is unwise to assume that we will have to put up with inferior products or poor availabity. Given the historical pattern, flexible and fast moving small or medium sized firms will likely take on the production of traditional photographic goods and services.

  7. #7

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    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    Let me make sure I've got this straight. I either eBay my instamatic cameras and flash cubes so I can make room for storing lots and lots of boxes of tri-x and ektapan, not to mention verichrome pan and what the heck, I might as well hoard some AZO just in case, along with a couple of 55 gallon drums of HC-110, OR I pop in an 8 track and start shooting Ilford, and Bergger! No need to find a new enlarging paper since Old Yeller quite making graded FB many moons ago(I would miss AZO, though) Really, sorry to hear that Kodak holds my patronage in such low regard(hey, I'm taking this personally!) But I really don't think the color of the box my film comes in is going to determin how creative my photographs turn out, and while I'll miss the yellow stuff, there are plenty of other suppliers whose products I've never gotten around to trying because I've always been satisfied with Kodak. Maybe this will get me experimenting more. Probably not a bad thing. Maybe a good thing!
    "I would feel more optimistic about a bright future for man if he spent less time proving that he can outwit Nature and more time tasting her sweetness and respecting her seniority"---EB White

  8. #8

    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    Film may be gone, but Azo will be around. We are committed to buying enough each year to keep it in production. But if you want to stock up on it, do get it from us, John. Thanks.

  9. #9

    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    Actually, Jonathan is correct in his assessment of Big Yellow. I have assisted Kodak manage a portion of their controllable costs in a consulting role for a number of years now and have had a peek at their internal workings and it is not a pretty picture. From a long period of inept decision making at the highest level, they are being forced to either sink of swim like many household names in corporate America. Just take a look at their stock price. The real funny thing is that what is going to allow Kodak to survive is drastically reducing their workforce and getting back to basics (sound familiar?). From a marketing perspective, both conventional and digital photography are somewhere between nominal and negative growth. It is a dog eat dog world out there and Fuji is their worst nightmare. For each to survive in this environment means finding the correct combination of products, services and costs that allow you to live for another day.

    Yes, the marketing folks have heard the music but are dreaming to say that they are privy to any practical implementing timelines.

    I know one thing for sure. Kodak has not been very successful in digital to the degree that they predicted a number of years ago. Could be that they are product typecast whereas Fuji has been able to shift gears and not be affected as seriously.

    Despite its managerial shortcomings, Kodak still has a good asset base and has developed a much better product service department that will allow it to keep on plugging for many years. Talking to the Senior financial folks you get an appreciation for the internal tug of war between the old school (base in conventional photography and find a niche in digital) and the new school (digital is the future and conventional is dead and waiting for the funeral).

    It is always a good idea to get a freezer and stockpile film, but don't get carried away. I will bet that we will see the same posts here five years from now.

    I commend Kodak for expanding their offerings in the 5x7 film format when many here heard that 5x7 would soon be doing the dirt dance. The best thing we can do is do what we do best - consume film and film products. Purchase what you feel works best for you and we will all do just fine.

  10. #10

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    But Film Now - Stock Up - Won't be around Long!

    There are more quality new parts available for Model A Fords now than there were in 1949. Bergger, Forte and Ilford are probably enjoying this discussion and wishing it was true.

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