What if: Kodak and Fuji abandon film

[Brian C. Miller]

Let's say for a moment that Kodak and Fuji both drop all film sales, because film has finally become a truly niche market and neither can sustain "reasonable" profit.

What do we do for color sheet film?

Sure, we have Ilford and various European companies producing B&W film. But color film is a different matter. Without Kodak and Fuji, what company would produce color sheet film? I don't know what's up with Agfa, but somehow I don't think that they would step into a market small enough for Kodak and Fuji to dump. Konica is also a niche player. Does Konica produce its own film?

Shooting three sheets with different filters kind of doesn't cut it for me.

Would color film simply be "lost" due to market economies, or would Ilford or someone else start producing it? Without the two major players, how long might it take before a replacement becomes available?

[Pete Watkins]

Many years ago Ilford did market colour film, the name Ilfochrome comes to mind. I don't know if Ilford made the stuff of rebranded it from another manufacturer.

[Mark_3632]

WHat if the sky fell? What if you died tomorrow, what if...What if....How about use what you got now and enjoy it. It is going to be around for a long time to come. Digital LF backs are just out of the price range for 99.99% of LF photographers, plus what is here now is too damn slow.

[Joseph O'Neil]

Depends on your point of view.

I heard an interesting statistic a few months ago. Even though cars repalced horses and buggies over 100 years ago, a recent survey reported that there are physically a higher number of horses in our local county than there was 100 years ago when everybody depended on them for their basic mode of transportation.

The buggy whip makers might have gone out of business - mostly due to animal rights concerns, but harness and saddle makers are as busy as ever. And if you get into some of the more kinky web sites, you'll see that buggy whips are still sold in large numbers, but we won't go there out of politeness.

We have nuclear weapons, but fencing is still taught at many military schools. Guns have not ment the demise of martial arts.

Generally speaking, the most expensive carpets you can buy are hand woven, not machine made. Same is true for furniture, and many musical instruments.

Engines have replaced sails over 125 years ago as a primary mode of power for shipping, but the local harbour has more sailing ships in it that were seen 150 years ago.

Do you see a trend here, or am I the only one crazy enough to do so?

So, if Fuji and Kodka kicked the bucket at midnight, you know what I would do - buy stock in Ilfrod, Forte, Bergger, etc, because the economic viability of these smaller suppliers woudl skyrocket overnight.

Big companies "think different" than smaller companies do. I remember a few years ago a local clothing chain store was closed by the parent company from out of town. It grossed over a million a year in sales, and yes, it did turn a profit, but the profit ratio wasn't high enough,a nd neither were the gross sales, according to some bean counter at head office. After they clsoed some local business opened up ion their place, thier level of clientle, and they have been doing good business ever since. Economy of scale a million a year in gross sales might not be enough for a multi national, but for a small guy, it's the best news in the world.

So don't worry about it. I think we have it good, very good overall. About the only people who have a right to complain at this moment, IMO, are the guys who cameras and enlargers are still underwater in their basement back in New Orleans, or something like that.
joe

[Christopher Perez]

Joseph,

Nicely said.

[Michael Gordon]

Since we're speaking wild hypotheticals...... we can all go back to hand-tinting b/w prints.

[John Flavell]

As long as they keep making crayons, I'm a happy camper.

[Eric Leppanen]

If color film was truly near end-of-life, then I seriously doubt Fuji would continue to introduce new emulsions (Velvia 100, 160S) and offer them in both 4x5 and 8x10 sheet sizes. Kodak appears to have zero R&D going on in film at this point, but film for both Fuji and Kodak has a high profit margin, so they'll continue to manufacture it -- scaling down manufacturing facilities along the way as demand continues to decline -- until factory capacity can no longer be cost-effectively reduced. Then they'll either sell the business to the third party or shut it down and write it off altogether (worst case scenario that they'll try to avoid, as they get no value for their property). But we're still many years away from such an endgame scenario, especially with regards to Fuji.

[Terence Spross]

Joseph O'Neil - couldn't have said it better myself

John Flavell - who said crayons won't be discontinued

I have an broadcast studio engineer friend who loved reel-to reel tapes and lamented the use of newer media. I know secretely he has copied some decent copy .wav files of orchestrations onto his analog reel-to reel and that is the way he prefers to esperience it. Guests to his house are not informed that what they are listening to was ever in a digital medium. Cynics may say he is deceiving himself along with others - but he is not evil - he just likes to see the 14inch reels move - and see the glow of filaments in his vacuum tube amplifier.

As far as I know, Fuji is still researching inprovements in film. They will be supplying longer than the others I think but eventually things will change.

Some new small companies will probably form based on purchase of intellectual rights to film making from the big players who will be eger to get out of a low volume (as compared to the digital volume then.) (Also as patents expire.)

Make no mistake - digital media will take over the mainstream - it will become cheaper and better to the point that few rational people will still argue. It might be a decade or two but there can be no doubt that a digital niche market will become viable for ultra-extreme resolutions that will eliminate the technical advantage of large formats for grain size. Software can already simulate the perspective that a swing-back can do. 32 bit photo-editors now , 64 or 128 bit depth then- superiority of an 8x10 architechual print ? no way- the digital will be better. That niche won't be in Wal-Mart and so will be available for a $$price just like large format equipment is pricey now.

However, just like some will want to get in their sailboat to spend a lazy day on on island some others will want to bring along a changing bag and take landscapes of the sailboats with the 'ol 4x5.

[Brian C. Miller]

After reading all of the "bah humbug on Kodak getting out of B&W" posts, I wondered what would happen with color. Its a bit different, as there really are just two major players.

Sure, somebody would step up to the plate. But who? When? Perhaps Fuji will be to color what Ilford is to B&W, i.e., last manufacturer standing. I think it would be neat if the Autochrome process came back.

Certaintly there are more horses than in 1900! Mr Horse + Mrs Horse = ponies. And everybody wants a pony! :-) However, its just a tad different in manufacturing film. Investors are needed, a distribution network is needed, manufacturing facilities, and of course a market. For instance, while I'm sure that a market exists for a 120 replacement for Techpan, nobody is stepping up to the plate to fund Gigabitfilm cutting a run for 120. I wonder how much trouble Michael and Paula had finding someone who would make an Azo replacement. And I also noticed that nobody is producing a commercial platinum paper.

Of course I'm enjoying color film while its here! Duh, dudes! :-)