Who is paying these prices?

[Hugo Zhang]

I can understand some high prices for rare lenses. But this one? Is this a sign that inflation is coming and in lenses we trust?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120545554750&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

[Steven Tribe]

Thanks for finding this - it is an eye opener! P&S and Eidoscope no. 4 I can understand but this I don't fathom!

[drew.saunders]

Fools...their money...divorce.

It's a sad and all too common story.

[Dan Fromm]

Hmm. If you believe the VM, these beasties cover up to 110 degrees. If true, a 141 mm lens will cover 400 mm. So perhaps there are some ULF fanatics who want one. It takes only two. If you look at the bidding history you'll see that the winner and #2 both outbid #3 by quite a lot. That said, Protars' prices have been rising for a while.

I've noticed high and rising prices for fast lenses for smaller formats, e.g., f/1.4 Boyer Saphirs. Sold one last year for what I regard as very silly money. It went to Japan; interestingly, the buyer sells from Korea.

There are cost-no-object types in HK and China, also Japan, who chase lenses that seem, at least to me, not worth the effort. Use Google Translate to look at, e.g., www.oldlensclub.hk to get an idea of what they prize and what they do. IIRC, they're not interested in slow wide angles.

Hugo, I see no way to anticipate price trends. I've made interesting money on lenses by sheer luck (that f/1.4 Saphir) and by being brave (my heap of 38/4.5 Biogons).

I'm aware of few people who might be able to drive prices. One is Klaus Schmitt. I'm convinced, with no data to support the belief, that his site macrolenses.de stimulates demand for lenses mentioned on it. If so, I salute him. Jim Galli might be able to interest people in his soft focus lenses. If so, I salute him too. At one time Andrew Glover stoked a small crazy for Pro Raptars; I salute him too.

Cheers,

Dan

[Atul Mohidekar]

I can understand some high prices for rare lenses. But this one? Is this a sign that inflation is coming and in lenses we trust?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120545554750&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

It just takes few bidders to heat up the bidding frenzy. Take a look at this lens sold about a month back on Feb. 24th:
Linhof Zeiss Planar 135mm f/3.5
18 bids, sold for $10,100 - this is not a typo!
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120532203383

And this lens does not even have the coveted Carl Zeiss T* coating.


// Atul

[Chauncey Walden]

Gee, I wonder what I could get for my 600mm Protar V?

[Hugo Zhang]

Dan,

I followed this item out of curiosity because I won an identical Protar v 6 1/2 x 8 1/2 lens made by B&L in shutter for $62 just a few days ago. Same focal length: 141mm.

Hugo

[Jim Fitzgerald]

Makes me want to take a look at my glass. Seems that even the projector lenses are going for big money. Good time to sell I guess.

Jim

[Robert Hughes]

Well, there's another Zeiss Protar for sale at about $150. So don't be a fool.

But... yesterday I sat in on a conference of small business executives, and a big-name macro economist was pontificating about his crystal ball. His charts tell him:

- the recession has bottomed out and we can expect more "normal" business for the next few years.
- Interest rates are going up starting next week - for good. If you ever intend to get a mortgage or re-fi, do it ASAP.
- Price hikes all around begin this summer. If you have an opportunity to negotiate long term contracts with vendors, do it now.
- 1970's style inflation will reignite in the coming years due to crushing governmental deficits, partly from bogus war accounting practices during the Bush years, partly from expanded health care insurance and other entitlement programs for aged, cranky large format photographers!
- The US Gov't deficit will be $1 Trillion a year indefinitely, interest on that debt becoming approx 35% of the GDP by 2020. Expect higher taxes all around.
- China will stop purchasing US debt as soon as it doesn't need our business anymore - ie gets their middle class established. Then it will buy up US holdings and become economic master of the USA. Wait, didn't capitalism defeat communism?
- China will start aggressively seeking females for their overwhelmingly male population (even to the point of Asian wars and large-scale kidnapping),
- Europe and Japan are very fragile economically, and will suffer worse than the US.
- In the 2020's, a major world Depression will likely set in due to systemic breakdowns in private and public debt.

So, there you go. But he's just an economist - they've been proven wrong before. Right, Mr. Greenspan/Geithner/Bernanke/Rubin?

[Dan Fromm]

Robert, name the jerk.

[civich]

For economists, as with other folks, conviction is inversely proportional to proximity.

[Sevo]

I'm aware of few people who might be able to drive prices. One is Klaus Schmitt. I'm convinced, with no data to support the belief, that his site macrolenses.de stimulates demand for lenses mentioned on it. If so, I salute him. Jim Galli might be able to interest people in his soft focus lenses. If so, I salute him too. At one time Andrew Glover stoked a small crazy for Pro Raptars; I salute him too.


Publicity about a collectible will increase its price, and the above are highly public and respected, and have started fads for particular lens types. However, what we see here (and could observe several times in the past few weeks) is the price of one solitary sale rising to bizarre heights, several times above the market value before and after. The recent high price sales did not introduce a permanent rise in value - since the outrageously expensive Xenotar went over ebay a few weeks ago, quite a few have already changed hands for the regular going rate, and the usual dealers are well stocked, at prices that are much closer to the average than to that singular auction.

That is no fashion creating a run on a suddenly rare item - there must be something different going on.

Sevo

[Tom Conway]

For those in the know, I have a few tulip bulbs for sale. Payment is accepted only in Confederate specie! ;)

[goamules]

That is no fashion creating a run on a suddenly rare item - there must be something different going on.

Sevo

I'm beginning to agree. When I see a medium-collectible lens category (I'll not even name one) go for $145, $160, $120, $1259, $180....something wacked is going on with the second to last sale. Mainly, it wasn't something I was selling!

[Jim Galli]

Kookie! Now what have I got around here that says Zeiss on it. The upper end before the final 2 crazy's sniped was beyond any value. It had gotten to $688 in regular bidding before the snipers. If that guy had emailed me and asked how much to sell that lens for on the forum here, I'd have said $265 bucks.

[Martin Miksch]

This was a russian seller and nobody here knows the real intention behind this deal.^^
Regards
Martin

[Jim Galli]

This was a russian seller and nobody here knows the real intention behind this deal.^^
Regards
Martin

I love a good conspiracy theory. You buy my $200 lens for $1100 and you get the 2 slave girls for a week? :eek:

[Jay Decker]

I am one of the guys exerting upward price pressure on Garrett's "medium-collectible" lenses, e.g., Eidoscope, Verito, Velostigmat Series II, and Petzval lenses. I also agree that the sale prices in these auctions are so out of line with the market that I too would suspect that something nefarious is going on...

[Tri Tran]

My guess is buyers are usually from oversea . On top of that our $ drops significantly.My Crystal ball said hang on to your lenses and price will continue to raise at least 30% especially all the Brass and Soft Focus Portrait lens, Landscape lens with huge coverage also is high demand items now unless you need $ to pay your taxes.

[Hugo Zhang]

I did a quick search on completed sales of protar v on ebay and there was this 182mm lens had no bid at $199 merely a few day earlier sold over $800 a few hours after this one. Some smart people and fools here.

[Dirk Rösler]

An ended auction doesn't mean that there is actually any money flowing. As I'm currently experiencing... Grrr