Possible new film

[BradS]

Ben,

I agree on most of your points, but none of your Seattle examples entered into mature technologies with demands in free-fall decline. I think that's significant.

Not to mention that none of them are R&D intensive nor do require any specialized technical expertise (for R&D or for operations). Only Mike's Hard Lemnonade could be called a manufacturing company. Starbucks and Amazon are ostensibly retail concerns. Amazon did not manufacture anything until recently and that only after building a strong core business and amassing hugh cash reserves.

[Ben Syverson]

My only point about those three were that they entered stale, mature markets and made a giant impact. And if you think Starbucks and Amazon didn't do a huge amount of R&D, you're sorely mistaken.

[Brian C. Miller]

Ben, I must take issue with the notion of Starbucks R&D. If you want to taste the difference between Starbucks and my home-roasted coffee, PM me. I hope you have a coffee grinder at home!

[Jay DeFehr]

My only point about those three were that they entered stale, mature markets and made a giant impact. And if you think Starbucks and Amazon didn't do a huge amount of R&D, you're sorely mistaken.

I don't disagree about the R&D. My point is that the demand for their products was not falling through the floor when they entered the market.

[Ben Syverson]

I don't disagree about the R&D. My point is that the demand for their products was not falling through the floor when they entered the market.

Maybe not "falling through the floor," but in 1995-1999, the bookstore, coffee and wine spritzer markets were either flatlining or declining. They were dying markets. No one in their right mind would advise those companies to enter those markets. "Long shot" doesn't even cover it.

In any event, analogies can only take us so far. The fact remains that I will buy 8x10 film as long as it's offered. In 10 years, we may have MF digital systems that are as cheap as DSLRs today and offer resolution comparable to the best 8x10, but unless my unreasonable latitude demands are met, I will still shoot film. Jerks like me will pay a premium per shot, and someone out there will supply the film.

10 years ago, if I told you that people would pay $10 / pound for luxury fresh pasta, you'd laugh in my face. But at my corner grocery, that's what you'll pay. Sure, you can make pasta for about 25¢ / pound, but will you? Probably not. That's where manufacturers come in.

[Greg Blank]

Pediantic. Case study rested.
As in several whores arguing on the corner about doing the local drunk better.

[Jay DeFehr]

Jerks like me will pay a premium per shot, and someone out there will supply the film.

How can you be so sure? How many photographic materials have to become extinct to dissuade you of that notion? How many materials are no longer available at any price? Everyone has a breaking point, regarding the premium they're willing/ able to pay, and when that doesn't provide a profit for the mfg, they stop making the product. It's not really about you, as I'm sure you're well aware, but the market you assume will remain viable-- that there will remain enough like you, willing and able to pay whatever it takes to keep at least one manufacturer afloat. My willingness to pay a premium wanes long before my ability. But maybe you're right-- it's certainly possible-- but far from a foregone conclusion, I think. And I've been wrong before. I never thought MAS could launch a new silver chloride paper, but he did. And even if it failed tomorrow, he would still have accomplished something meaningful, and my guess is, he'd have no regrets. Sometimes it's very nice to be wrong!

[Ben Syverson]

Just think of it this way... there are still shops out there producing brand new vacuum tubes. From an engineering standpoint, there is absolutely no reason to use them, and demand for new tubes roughly follows the catastrophic graph of film demand.

True, the catalog of available tubes in 1958 was probably as thick as a phonebook. You have less to choose from today. But a few useful sizes are still being produced, and people are still buying them.

[Greg Blank]

WTF-Oh my did you say that?! 2012,....Holy sh-t its true, & Publically yet!!! That was my point! Quite a few posts back. Someone somewhere makes the stuff or grinds it (Pigment), and Steel its made.

[QUOTE=Jay DeFehr;And I've been wrong before. I never thought MAS could launch a new silver chloride paper, but he did. And even if it failed tomorrow, he would still have accomplished something meaningful, and my guess is, he'd have no regrets. Sometimes it's very nice to be wrong![/QUOTE]

[Ben Syverson]

Somehow I think we've gotten slightly off-topic